Investors are prone to following herd instincts and to carrying both optimism and pessimism to extremes. We are contrarians, adhering to our own analytical markers with the strong conviction that buying low and selling high is the surest approach to consistently good investment performance.
Being a Contrarian Investor, by definition, is a lonely life. Often contrarian ideas and themes go directly against what everyone is being told by the "experts." At Lowell Blake we avoid the flavor of the month.
Contrarian investing does not mean buying a stock or playing a theme simply because it is out-of-favor. Often a stock that is considered out-of-favor should be and therefore is sold. The Contrarian must make investment decisions using both judgment and fundamental analysis, and must have patience. This is in complete opposition to Wall Street’s widely accepted premise of Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory uses seemingly scientific and quantitative methods to disguise what are simply human variables and inputs, erroneously providing so-called quantitative certainty.
The Contrarian must often fend off criticism about being out of touch with the current market because he/she is not obeying what Wall Street deems "the next big thing." The only true way to gain sound capital appreciation is to be invested in a theme prior to it becoming the next lemming run.
While it is important to know what we look for in a stock, it is equally important to know what to avoid – often times we do not know if a company is strong or weak until we dissect the balance sheet and count the number of footnotes.
Being a Contrarian is part art and part science. But with patience and hard work, strong self esteem and an open mind, the Contrarian is rewarded. Contrarians never rest, are always analyzing, always reading, and always learning. Having to constantly defend investment choices (after all, no news or only negative news is our playground) makes a Contrarian an even better investor. It is a lonely life in the financial community, but it is definitely not boring and at times can be great fun.